Abstract
Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of US agriculture will shift. The impact on the US economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
$199.00 per year
only $3.90 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Keeling, C. Bacastow, R. & Whorf, T. in Carbon Dioxide Review: 1982 (ed. Clark, W.) 377–384 (Oxford University Press, 1982).
Ramanathan, V. Cicerone, R. J., Singh, H. B. & Kielhl, J. T. J. geophys. Res. 90, 5557–5566 (1985).
Washington, W. M. & Meehl, G. A. J. geophys. Res. 89, 9475–9503 (1984).
Hansen, J. et al. J. geophys. Res. 93, 9341–9364 (1988).
Manabe, S. & Wetherald, R. T. Science 232, 626–628 (1986).
National Research Council Current Issues in Atmospheric Change (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1987).
Schneider, S. H. Science 243, 771–781 (1989).
Decker, W. L. Jones, V. & Achutuni, R. in Characterization of Information Requirements for Studies of CO2 Effects: Water Resources, Agriculture, Fisheries, Forests and Human Health, Report DOW-ER-0236 (ed White, M. R. ) 69–93 (U. S. Department of Energy, 1985).
Schelling, T. C. in Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee Changing Climate 449–4985 (National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, 1983).
Smit, B., Ludlow, L. & Brklacich, M. J. envir. Qual. 17, 519–527 (1988).
Rind, D., Rosenzweig, A. & Rosenzweig, C. Nature 334, 483–486 (1988).
Sonka, S. T. & Lamb, P. J. Clim. Change, 11, 291–311 (1987).
Parry, M. L., Carter, T. R. & Konijn, N. T. The Impact of Climate Variation on Agriculture, Vols 1 & 2 (Kluwer Academic, Norwell, 1988).
Hansen, J. et al. Mon. Weath. Rev. 3/4, 609–622 (1983).
Kellogg, W. W. & Zhao, Z. J. Clim. 1, 348–366 (1968).
Jones, J. W., Boote, K. J., Jagtap, S. S., Hoogenboom, G. & Wilkerson, G. G. Florida Agricultural Experiment Station Journal No. 8304, FAS (University of Florida, Gainesville) 1988).
Ritchie, J. T. & Otter, S. AGRISTARS publication No. YM-US-044420JSC-18892 (Michigan State University, 1984).
Jones, C. A. & Kiniry, J. R. (eds) CERES-Maise: A Simulation Model of Maize Growth and Development (Texas A&M University Press, College Station, 1986).
Peart, B., Jones, J. W., Curry, R. B., Boote, K. J. & Allen, L. H. Jr in The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, Appendix C (eds. Smith, J. B. & Tirpak, D. A.) (US Environmental Protection Agency, 1989).
Ritchie, J. T., Baer, D. B. & Chou, T. W. The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the U.S. Appendix C (eds, Smith, J. B. & Tirpak, D. A.) (US Environmental Protection Agency, 1989).
Rosenzweig, C. The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the U.S. Appendix C (eds, Smith, J. B. & Tirpak, D. A.) (US Environmental Protection Agency, 1989).
Kimball, B. A. in Carbon Dioxide Enrichment of Greenhouse Crops (eds, Enoch, H. Z. & Kimball, B. A.) (CRL, 1986).
Rosenberg, N. J. Clim. Change 3, 265–279 (1981).
Baker, J. T., Allen, L. H. Jr, Boote, K. J., Jones, P. & Jones, J. W. Crop Sci. 29, 98–105 (1989).
Ramanathan, V. Science 240, 293–299 (1988).
Adams, R. M., Glyer, J. D. & McCarl, B. A. in The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the U.S. Appendix C (eds, Smith, J. B. & Tirpak, D. A.) (US Environmental Protection Agency, 1989).
Cheng, C. C. & McCarl, B. A. The Agricultural Sector Model, Texas Agricultural Experiment Station Misc. Report, College Station (in the press).
Adams, R. M., Hamilton, S. A. & McCarl, B. A. Am. J. agric. Econ. 68, 886–894 (1986).
Adams, R. M. & Rowe, R. D. J. envir. Manage. (in the press).
Smith, J. B. & Tirpak, D. A. (eds) The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States. Executive Summary (US Environmental Protection Agency. Washington, DC, 1989).
Diewert, W. E. J. Economet. 4, 116–145 (1976).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Adams, R., Rosenzweig, C., Peart, R. et al. Global climate change and US agriculture. Nature 345, 219–224 (1990). https://doi.org/10.1038/345219a0
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/345219a0
This article is cited by
-
Living and Responding to Climatic Stresses: Perspectives from Smallholder Farmers in Hanang’ District, Tanzania
Environmental Management (2023)
-
Unsupervised learning on U.S. weather forecast performance
Computational Statistics (2023)
-
Impact of recent climate change on corn, rice, and wheat in southeastern USA
Scientific Reports (2022)
Comments
By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.