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Wetter then drier in some tropical areas

Nature Climate Change volume 4, pages 646–647 (2014)Cite this article

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To the Editor —

Projected changes in precipitation are generally assumed to be monotonic with respect to global temperature changes: rainfall will either increase or decrease as the climate warms. However, using an example in South America, we demonstrate that, under a high emissions scenario, rainfall changes in some regions can actually be non-monotonic, which has important implications for biodiversity, the carbon cycle and long-term climate policy.

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Figure 1: Non-monotonic precipitation projections.

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Acknowledgements

E.H. is supported by a NERC Advanced Research Fellowship and M.J. acknowledges support from Victoria University of Wellington. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK

    Ed Hawkins

  2. Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    Manoj Joshi

  3. New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, 6012, New Zealand

    Dave Frame

Authors
  1. Ed Hawkins
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  2. Manoj Joshi
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  3. Dave Frame
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Correspondence to Ed Hawkins.

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Hawkins, E., Joshi, M. & Frame, D. Wetter then drier in some tropical areas. Nature Clim Change 4, 646–647 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2299

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