The relationship between soil moisture and rainfall has proved tricky to pin down. An analysis of close to 4,000 Sahelian storms suggests that certain soil-moisture patterns enhance the likelihood of rainfall.
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Koster, R. Storm instigation from below. Nature Geosci 4, 427–428 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1192
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1192
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Reconciling spatial and temporal soil moisture effects on afternoon rainfall
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