Volume 11 Issue 4, April 2021

Weather and climate service providers around the world are looking to issue assessments of the human role in recent extreme weather events. For this attribution to be of value, it is important that vulnerability is acknowledged and questions are framed appropriately.

To mark the tenth anniversary of Nature Climate Change, we asked a selection of researchers across the broad range of climate change disciplines to share their thoughts on notable developments of the past decade, as well as their hopes and expectations for the coming years of discovery.

In celebration of the tenth anniversary of Nature Climate Change, past and present editors reminisce about some of the papers that stood out.

The science is ripe to update estimates of CO₂ emissions costs. Calls to scrap the calculation are misguided.

Raising agricultural productivity has been essential for global food security and conserving land. Now, research quantifies how climate change has slowed agricultural productivity growth around the world.

Coastal adaptation aims to reduce impacts of relative sea-level rise from climate-induced sea-level rise and land elevation changes. Now, a global projection of relative sea-level rise to 2050 suggests the critical role of managing land subsidence for coastal cities on sinking deltas.

Climate change vulnerability assessments of cold-water species have focused on protecting cold summer habitats in high-elevation streams. Now, a study shows that seasonally warm rivers can provide the majority of growth potential for cold-water fishes, unveiling a notable blind spot in freshwater climate research and planning.

Contributions to mitigate climate change should be equitable under the Paris Agreement, yet researchers take sharply diverging approaches to assessing national effort. This Perspective evaluates the literature and presents guidelines for policy-relevant—and ethically explicit—research on equity.

Agricultural productivity has increased historically, but the impact of climate change on productivity growth is not clear. In the last 60 years, anthropogenic climate change has reduced agricultural total factor production globally by 21%, with stronger impacts in warmer regions.

Climate policy calls for energy demand reduction on top of decarbonizing energy generation. Analysis of historical energy–income data shows that achieving these climate targets alongside economic development poses unresolved policy and modelling challenges, especially for developing countries.

Increases in daily temperature variability could reduce economic growth. Analysis of 40 years of subnational economic data and daily temperature observations from across the world shows that higher temperature variability reduces annual income, with greatest vulnerability in low-latitude regions.

Warming causes mountain snowpack to melt earlier during local spring. An idealized model suggests that melt date sensitivity to warming depends largely on mean temperature and its seasonal cycle; the largest sensitivities are seen in coastal regions, the Arctic, western United States, Central Europe and South America.

Model projections of future drylands distribution using a proxy based on atmospheric aridity show expansion under climate change, but may not be an accurate representation. An alternative index based on ecohydrological variables such as water limitation shows no global expansion of drylands.

Land subsidence and uplift influence the rate of sea-level rise. Most coastal populations live in subsiding areas and experience average rates of relative sea-level rise three to four times faster than due to climate change alone, indicating the need for policy to address subsidence.

The authors examine the effect of long-term experimental warming on the complexity and stability of molecular ecological networks in grassland soil microbial communities. They find warming increases network complexity, which is strongly correlated with network stability.

The impact of glacier retreat on fungal-driven decomposition in rivers is investigated using a standardized test across six countries. Less glacier cover is linked to increased decomposition, which is in turn associated with a greater abundance of fungi and a fungal cellulose-degrading gene, cbhI.

Modelling riverine fish growth across warm and cool sections of a river network, the authors demonstrate that habitats that are suboptimally warm in summer may actually provide the majority of growth potential. This highlights a risk in conservation strategies that devalue ephemerally warm habitats.