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Glacial isostatic adjustment reduces past and future Arctic subsea permafrost
A pan-Arctic estimate of past and future subsea permafrost including solid Earth effects causes local sea level to differ from the global mean. Future subsea permafrost disappears faster under high than low emissions scenarios.
- Roger C. Creel
- , Frederieke Miesner
- & Pier Paul Overduin
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Amundsen Sea circulation controls bottom upwelling and Antarctic Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelf melting
On-shelf circulation modulates vertical velocity via bottom Ekman dynamics, controlling thermocline depth and melting of Amundsen Sea ice shelves. This mechanism does not support the widely believed linkage between off-shelf wind and on-shelf heat.
- Taewook Park
- , Yoshihiro Nakayama
- & SungHyun Nam
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A mechanism for reconciling the synchronisation of Heinrich events and Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles
In this study, an atmospheric perturbation mechanism is introduced that reconciles the synchronisation of Heinrich events and Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles.
- Clemens Schannwell
- , Uwe Mikolajewicz
- & Florian Ziemen
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Ice shelf basal channel shape determines channelized ice-ocean interactions
Interactions between meltwater flow and ice shelf basal channels are studied using a 3D boundary current model. Deep channels are found to significantly enhance channelized basal melting, meltwater channeling, and warming and salinization of channel flow.
- Chen Cheng
- , Adrian Jenkins
- & Chengyan Liu
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Recent autumn sea ice loss in the eastern Arctic enhanced by summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation
A recent phase shift of the summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO), featuring out-of-phase variations in upper-tropospheric temperatures between Asia and the North Pacific, accelerated autumn sea ice loss in the eastern Arctic.
- Botao Zhou
- , Ziyi Song
- & Haishan Chen
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Reconciling ice core CO2 and land-use change following New World-Old World contact
Ice core records of gradually declining atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) for the period 1450–1700 CE support modelled scenarios of large-scale reorganisation of land use in the Americas following New World-Old World contact.
- Amy C. F. King
- , Thomas K. Bauska
- & Matthew B. Osman
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Deglaciation-enhanced mantle CO2 fluxes at Yellowstone imply positive climate feedback
The retreat of the #Yellowstone ice cap reduced mantle pressures. Using models, we predict this enhanced mantle melting 19-fold, segregating a globally-significant mass of CO2 and potentially contributing to feedbacks between deglaciation and climate.
- Fiona Clerc
- , Mark D. Behn
- & Brent M. Minchew
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Sediment discharge from Greenland’s marine-terminating glaciers is linked with surface melt
As Greenland’s huge calving glaciers melt, they pump sediment deep into biologically rich fjords. In this study, the quantity and path of this sediment is tracked and an empirical relationship is found between sediment and the amount of surface melt on the glacier.
- Camilla S. Andresen
- , Nanna B. Karlsson
- & Ida E. Gundel
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Shear margins in upper half of Northeast Greenland Ice Stream were established two millennia ago
The flow of ice streams leaves traces in the stratigraphy of the ice sheets. Made visible by radar, they reveal the history of the upper North East Greenland Ice Stream. The ice stream is found to have existed in its current form for only about the last 2000 years.
- Daniela Jansen
- , Steven Franke
- & Paul D. Bons
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Increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau
The weakened vertical wind shear is the primary driver behind increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific monsoon trough. This weakening is partly driven by warming in the Tibetan Plateau.
- Jing Xu
- , Ping Zhao
- & Lu Liu
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Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice
A decadal-scale oscillatory pattern is identified that is a dominant mode of Antarctic sea ice variability. This mode is primarily driven by tropical-polar connections, offering insights into the multi-year predictability of Antarctic sea ice.
- Yusen Liu
- , Cheng Sun
- & Xichen Li
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Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution
High-resolution 2-km Antarctic maps reveal higher snowfall and surface melt than low-resolution products, reconciling satellite-observed ice sheet mass change. Projected higher surface melt near grounding lines threatens future ice shelf stability.
- Brice Noël
- , J. Melchior van Wessem
- & Michiel R. van den Broeke
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Ocean warming drives rapid dynamic activation of marine-terminating glacier on the west Antarctic Peninsula
Warm ocean waters and favourable bathymetry caused Cadman Glacier on the Antarctic Peninsula to increase speed by 94% from 2018 to 2019. This led to increased ice discharge, glacier retreat of 8 kilometres, and glacier thinning by 20 meters per year.
- Benjamin J. Wallis
- , Anna E. Hogg
- & Carlos Moffat
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Wind-driven device for cooling permafrost
This work demonstrates a wind-powered device for cooling permafrost in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. Composed of a windmill, mechanical clutch, and a heat exchanger with a phase change material, pilot experiments show soil temperature reduction with superior efficiency compared to traditional thermosyphons.
- Yinghong Qin
- , Tianyu Wang
- & Weixin Yuan
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Tracking lake drainage events and drained lake basin vegetation dynamics across the Arctic
The Arctic is dotted with lakes, including thermokarst lakes highly threatened by climate change. Here, the authors investigate 35 years of lake drainage events and related vegetation trends across the Arctic, finding differences between thermokarst and non-thermokarst lake drainage events.
- Yating Chen
- , Xiao Cheng
- & Chengxin Wang
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Rapid disintegration and weakening of ice shelves in North Greenland
North Greenland ice shelves have lost more than a third of their masses, thinning dramatically from below due to increased ocean temperatures. In response, grounding lines have retreated and the amount of ice discharged into the ocean has increased.
- R. Millan
- , E. Jager
- & A. Bjørk
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Drivers of Antarctic sea ice advance
Processes controlling the onset of the Antarctic sea ice season remain unclear. Here, analyses of observations show that ocean solar energy storage and sea ice drift are key drivers, providing insights to understand variations in sea ice season duration.
- Kenza Himmich
- , Martin Vancoppenolle
- & Marion Lebrun
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A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming
Will snow become cleaner or dirtier in the future? Using Earth System Model simulations, this study reveals a cleaner snow future and highlights its benefits for future water supply from snowmelt.
- Dalei Hao
- , Gautam Bisht
- & L. Ruby Leung
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Unchanged frequency and decreasing magnitude of outbursts from ice-dammed lakes in Alaska
This study triples the number of previously known glacial lake outbursts in Alaska, documenting 1150 events over 35 years. The frequency of events did not change over time but total lake volume decreased, likely reducing the regional flood hazard.
- B. Rick
- , D. McGrath
- & W. H. Armstrong
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High Arctic channel incision modulated by climate change and the emergence of polygonal ground
Accelerating global warming is driving profound Arctic environmental change. The authors show that the structure and evolution of new stream networks are influenced by the evolving character of geometric ground patterns related to the response of permafrost to recent climate change.
- Shawn M. Chartrand
- , A. Mark Jellinek
- & Shannon Hibbard
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North African humid periods over the past 800,000 years
A climate model identifies that periodic wet phases in the Sahara, termed North African Humid Periods, were driven by Earths orbital variations and were suppressed during glacial periods due to the influence of extensive ice sheets.
- Edward Armstrong
- , Miikka Tallavaara
- & Paul J. Valdes
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Antarctic evidence for an abrupt northward shift of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies at 32 ka BP
Antarctic ice core records provide insights into past environmental conditions. Here, an abrupt, synchronous increase in dust from ice cores in Antarctica is identified that suggests a sudden equatorward shift of westerly winds and coincides with a reduction in atmospheric CO2.
- Abhijith U. Venugopal
- , Nancy A. N. Bertler
- & Marcus J. Vandergoes
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Heterogeneous changes of soil microclimate in high mountains and glacier forelands
The high-resolution global model of soil temperature and snow cover change in mountain ecosystems developed here shows that areas nearby glaciers are warming faster than other mountain regions, and these effects are particularly rapid in tropical mountains.
- Silvio Marta
- , Anaïs Zimmer
- & Gentile Francesco Ficetola
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Satellite record reveals 1960s acceleration of Totten Ice Shelf in East Antarctica
Historical velocity maps reveal over five decade-long acceleration and high-level discharge in Totten Glacier, East Antarctica, from 1963-2018, induced by warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water.
- Rongxing Li
- , Yuan Cheng
- & Wenkai Ye
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Unraveling the optical shape of snow
Micrometre scale simulation of the trajectory of sunlight as it reaches the snowpack shows what snow looks like from the photon’s perspective, providing a more universal representation of snow in optical models.
- Alvaro Robledano
- , Ghislain Picard
- & Quentin Libois
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Summer atmospheric circulation over Greenland in response to Arctic amplification and diminished spring snow cover
A shift in summer atmospheric circulation has accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet melt. The authors show that diminished North American snow cover supports these conditions by inducing a stationary Rossby wave that favors high pressure over Greenland.
- Jonathon R. Preece
- , Thomas L. Mote
- & Gabriel J. Kooperman
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Continentality determines warming or cooling impact of heavy rainfall events on permafrost
Literature analysis and numerical modeling experiments suggest the continentality of a permafrost region determines whether the ground experiences warming or cooling as a consequence of heavy summer rainfall.
- Alexandra Hamm
- , Rúna Í. Magnússon
- & Andrew Frampton
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Crystal orientation fabric anisotropy causes directional hardening of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream
This study uses radio-echo sounding measurements, ice-core data and models to map the spatial variation in ice-crystal orientation in the northeast Greenland Ice Stream and shows how it potentially affects the ice-flow dynamics in this region.
- Tamara Annina Gerber
- , David A. Lilien
- & Olaf Eisen
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Atlantic water intrusion triggers rapid retreat and regime change at previously stable Greenland glacier
From 2018 to 2021, KIV Steenstrups Nordre Bræ, a marine-terminating outlet glacier of the Greenland Ice Sheet, retreated ~7 km, thinned ~20%, doubled in discharge, and accelerated ~300%. This rate of change is unprecedented in the observational record.
- T. R. Chudley
- , I. M. Howat
- & A. Negrete
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Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is currently surrounded by relatively cool water but changes in ocean dynamics may lead to warmer ocean water on the shelf in the future. This has the potential to dramatically increase its future sea level contribution.
- James R. Jordan
- , B. W. J. Miles
- & C. R. Stokes
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Increasing extreme melt in northeast Greenland linked to foehn winds and atmospheric rivers
Extreme ice sheet melt events in northeast Greenland occur after intense water vapor transport into northwest Greenland by atmospheric rivers. Through the foehn effect, the air becomes warmer and drier as it descends the ice sheet slope.
- Kyle S. Mattingly
- , Jenny V. Turton
- & Thomas L. Mote
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Thawing permafrost poses environmental threat to thousands of sites with legacy industrial contamination
Thousands of industrial sites were found to be correlated with contaminated sites in the Arctic. Between 13,000 and 20,000 contaminated sites are likely to exist in the permafrost region, 26% of which will be affected by permafrost thaw before 2100.
- Moritz Langer
- , Thomas Schneider von Deimling
- & Guido Grosse
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Sea level rise from West Antarctic mass loss significantly modified by large snowfall anomalies
The authors combine measurements of ice loss from West Antarctica with climate modelling to show that periods of drought or extremely heavy precipitation can significantly increase or decrease rates of mass loss for periods lasting several years.
- Benjamin J. Davison
- , Anna E. Hogg
- & Pierre Dutrieux
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Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model
Most global sea level projections ignore the active role of ice-sheet-climate coupling. Including this effect, a new modeling system simulates irreversible Antarctic ice-sheet loss and accelerating sea level rise for global mean temperatures >1.8oC.
- Jun-Young Park
- , Fabian Schloesser
- & Arjun Babu Nellikkattil
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Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a major hazard to downstream populations. Here, the authors show that 15 million people globally are potentially exposed to GLOF impacts, with more than half of these living in India, Pakistan, Peru and China.
- Caroline Taylor
- , Tom R. Robinson
- & Matthew Westoby
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Revised historical Northern Hemisphere black carbon emissions based on inverse modeling of ice core records
Black Carbon is an important climate forcer with poorly constraint historic emission fluxes and therefore large emission uncertainty. Here, ice-core data are combined with modelling to reconstruct historical emissions of Black carbon and finding gaps with the existing inventories, which implies potential climate sensitivity biases
- Sabine Eckhardt
- , Ignacio Pisso
- & Andreas Stohl
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Inter-decadal climate variability induces differential ice response along Pacific-facing West Antarctica
Systematic satellite, ocean and atmosphere records show the pace and extent of melting in West Antarctica vary by location, with glaciers flowing to the Amundsen Sea most sensitive to atmosphere‒ocean variability atop a marine ice-sheet instability.
- Frazer D. W. Christie
- , Eric J. Steig
- & Robert G. Bingham
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Regional and tele-connected impacts of the Tibetan Plateau surface darkening
Impacts of Tibetan Plateau darkening remain unclear. Here authors show that darkening under the RCP8.5 scenario will increase South Asian monsoon precipitation and the “South Flood-North Drought” pattern over East Asia, while lead to local glacier loss.
- Shuchang Tang
- , Anouk Vlug
- & Tandong Yao
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Permafrost in the Cretaceous supergreenhouse
The archetypal supergreenhouse Cretaceous Earth had an active cryosphere with permafrost in plateau deserts. A modern analogue is the aeolian–permafrost system from the Qiongkuai Lebashi Lake area, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China.
- Juan Pedro Rodríguez-López
- , Chihua Wu
- & Chao Ma
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Ocean variability beneath Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf driven by the Pine Island Bay Gyre strength
A weaker ocean gyre in the Pine Island Bay, suppressed by higher sea-ice concentration over the ocean near the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, allows more meltwater to enter the sub-ice-shelf cavity. This increases the ocean temperature beneath the ice.
- Tiago S. Dotto
- , Karen J. Heywood
- & Erin Pettit
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Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories
Winter sea ice production appears to have been increasing, despite Arctic warming being most intense during winter. Here the authors examine the competing factors controlling sea ice production in the Kara and Laptev seas, and develop a simple model that explains the rise and subsequent fall of ice production under climate change.
- S. B. Cornish
- , H. L. Johnson
- & A. E. Richards
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Liquid water on cold exo-Earths via basal melting of ice sheets
Liquid water is key for life as we know it. Here, the authors show even with a modest geothermal heat flow, subglacial oceans of liquid water can form at the base of and within the ice sheets on exo-Earths, which may provide habitable conditions for an extended period.
- Lujendra Ojha
- , Bryce Troncone
- & George McDonald
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The extreme yet transient nature of glacial erosion
Glacial erosion processes over geological timescales are poorly understood. Here the authors apply an observationally constrained model to reconstruct the evolving thermodynamics and transient erosional signature of the Eurasian Ice Sheet over the last 100,000-year ice age to reveal how it profoundly sculpted but also protected the landscape visible today
- H. Patton
- , A. Hubbard
- & K. Andreassen
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South Asian black carbon is threatening the water sustainability of the Asian Water Tower
South Asian black carbon’s pairing activities (direct and indirect effects) are driving glacial mass decline of the so-called “Water Tower of Asia” with the potential to threaten future water resources for the countries that rely upon its source.
- Junhua Yang
- , Shichang Kang
- & Robert R. Gillies
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| Open Access
Deglacial release of petrogenic and permafrost carbon from the Canadian Arctic impacting the carbon cycle
Shrinking of the Laurentide Ice Sheet mobilized the underlying rock organic carbon. Together with permafrost carbon release, this may contribute 12 ppm to deglacial CO2 rise, underscoring the impact of cryospheric change on the carbon cycle.
- Junjie Wu
- , Gesine Mollenhauer
- & Seung-Il Nam
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Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections
Here, the authors highlight that a better representation of large-scale wind-driven warming processes in climate models has potential for lessening sea-level rise projection uncertainties associated with Greenland ice sheet melt.
- Dániel Topál
- , Qinghua Ding
- & Ildikó Pieczka
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Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios
Greenland firn, the layer of compressed snow that today covers 90% of the ice sheet, currently retains half of the meltwater through refreezing. Here the authors use climate simulations to predict that refreezing in Greenland firn could peak at around 2130 and decline thereafter, rapidly increasing ice sheet mass loss and sea level rise.
- Brice Noël
- , Jan T. M. Lenaerts
- & Michiel R. van den Broeke
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The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones
Rapid warming and Arctic sea ice melt will drive intensification of regional storms, increasing wind speeds and precipitation. Increasingly extreme storms exacerbate climate change effects and damage to local ecosystems, communities, and industries.
- Chelsea L. Parker
- , Priscilla A. Mooney
- & Linette N. Boisvert
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| Open Access
Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget
An international team of researchers finds high potential for improving climate projections by a more comprehensive treatment of largely ignored Arctic vegetation types, underscoring the importance of Arctic energy exchange measuring stations.
- Jacqueline Oehri
- , Gabriela Schaepman-Strub
- & Scott D. Chambers
Ocean cavity regime shift reversed West Antarctic grounding line retreat in the late Holocene