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Small and large earthquakes can have similar starts

A long-standing question in seismology is whether small and large earthquakes have similar or different onsets. An analysis of earthquakes around Japan shows that, in some cases, these onsets are almost identical.
  1. Rachel E. Abercrombie

    1. Rachel E. Abercrombie is in the Department of Earth & Environment, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, USA.

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When can we know how large an earthquake will be? Is the magnitude of an earthquake controlled by the conditions and dynamics at the start of its growth? If so, measurements of the initial seismic waves from an earthquake, and even of the area in which it will occur, could enable early warnings of ground shaking. If not, then the chances of such short-term prediction are low. Writing in Nature, Ide1 compares the onsets of thousands of large earthquakes around Japan with those of nearby small ones. He finds that the onsets of about 20% of large earthquakes are indistinguishable from those of closely located small ones, within the frequency range of the seismic waves that he analysed.

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Nature 573, 42-43 (2019)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-02613-5

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