Figure 1: Surface energy balance.

Observed and climate model deduced energy fluxes (all in Wm⁻²) in and out of the TOA (a) and at the surface (b). The observed fluxes (containing error estimates) are taken from Fig. B1 and the climate model fluxes are from simulations archived under the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) twentieth-century experiments. The fluxes from a 16-model ensemble are summarized in terms of the range in model values (maximum and minimum fluxes) with the ensemble mean fluxes given in parenthesis. 'SW in' and 'SW out' refer to the incoming and outgoing (reflected) solar fluxes at the TOA and 'LW out' is the outgoing longwave radiation. Similarly 'SW down' and 'SW up' refer to downward and upward (reflected) solar fluxes at the surface, and 'LW up' and 'LW down' refer to the upward emitted flux of longwave radiation from the surface and the downward longwave flux emitted from the atmosphere to the surface, respectively. SH and LH refer to latent and sensible heat fluxes.