Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Perspective
  • Published:

Deliberating trade-offs with the future

Nature Human Behaviour volume 4, pages 238–247 (2020)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Many fundamental choices in life are intertemporal: they involve trade-offs between sooner and later outcomes. In recent years there has been a surge of interest into how people make intertemporal decisions, given that such decisions are ubiquitous in everyday life and central in domains from substance use to climate change action. While it is clear that people make decisions according to rules, intuitions and habits, they also commonly deliberate over their options, thinking through potential outcomes and reflecting on their own preferences. In this Perspective, we bring to bear recent research into the higher-order capacities that underpin deliberation—particularly those that enable people to think about the future (prospection) and their own thinking (metacognition)—to shed light on intertemporal decision-making. We show how a greater appreciation for these mechanisms of deliberation promises to advance our understanding of intertemporal decision-making and unify a wide range of otherwise disparate choice phenomena.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Deliberating over anticipated changes of mind.
Fig. 2: Deliberation in intertemporal choice phenomena.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Plato. Protagoras. trans. Jowett, B. & Ostwald, M. (ed. Vlastos, G.) (Bobbs-Merrill, 1956).

  2. Smith, A. Adam Smith: The Theory of Moral Sentiments. Cambridge Texts in the History of Philosophy (Cambridge University Press, 1759).

  3. Strotz, R. H. Rev. Econ. Stud. 23, 165–180 (1955).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Ericson, K.M. & Laibson, D. in Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 2, Volume 2 (eds. Bernheim, B. D., DellaVigna, S. & Laibson, D.) 1–67 (North-Holland, 2019).

  5. Bickel, W. K. et al. Curr. Opin. Psychol. 30, 59–64 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  6. Lempert, K. M., Steinglass, J. E., Pinto, A., Kable, J. W. & Simpson, H. B. Psychol. Med. 49, 190–199 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  7. Pepper, G. V. & Nettle, D. Behav. Brain Sci. 40, e314 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  8. Sanchez-Roige, S. et al. Nat. Neurosci. 21, 16–18 (2018).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  9. Viganò, E. Neuroethics 10, 215–233 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Ericson, K. M., White, J. M., Laibson, D. & Cohen, J. D. Psychol. Sci. 26, 826–833 (2015).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  11. Gigerenzer, G. & Todd, P. M. Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart. (Oxford University Press, USA, 1999).

    Google Scholar 

  12. Gilovich, T. Griffin, D. & Kahneman, D. Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. (Cambridge University Press, 2002).

  13. Redish, A. D. Nat. Rev. Neurosci. 17, 147–159 (2016).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  14. Abram, S. V., Hanke, M., Redish, A. D. & MacDonald, A. W. Cogn. Affect. Behav. Neurosci. 19, 1492–1508 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  15. Bakkour, A. et al. eLife 8, e46080 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  16. Kable, J. W. & Glimcher, P. W. Nat. Neurosci. 10, 1625–1633 (2007).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  17. Peters, J. & Büchel, C. J. Neurosci. 29, 15727–15734 (2009).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  18. Kable, J. W. & Glimcher, P. W. J. Neurophysiol. 103, 2513–2531 (2010).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  19. McClure, S. M., Laibson, D. I., Loewenstein, G. & Cohen, J. D. Science 306, 503–507 (2004).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  20. Thaler, R. H. & Shefrin, H. J. Polit. Econ. 89, 392–406 (1981).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Kurth-Nelson, Z., Bickel, W. & Redish, A. D. Eur. J. Neurosci. 35, 1052–1064 (2012).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  22. Regier, P.S. & Redish, A.D. Front. Psychiatry https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2015.00076 (2015).

  23. Loewenstein, G., O’Donoghue, T. & Bhatia, S. Decision 2, 55–81 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Loewenstein, G. Psychol. Sci. Public Interest 19, 95–101 (2018).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  25. Bulley, A., Henry, J. & Suddendorf, T. Rev. Gen. Psychol. 20, 29–47 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Keinan, A. & Kivetz, R. J. Mark. Res. 45, 676–689 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Shenhav, A., Rand, D. G. & Greene, J. D. Judgement Decis. Mak. 12, 1–18 (2017).

    Google Scholar 

  28. Kool, W., McGuire, J. T., Wang, G. J. & Botvinick, M. M. PLoS One 8, e72626 (2013).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  29. Frederick, S. J. Econ. Perspect. 19, 25–42 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Aranovich, G. J., McClure, S. M., Fryer, S. & Mathalon, D. H. Neuroimage 124, 733–739 (2016).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  31. Bickel, W. K., Yi, R., Landes, R. D., Hill, P. F. & Baxter, C. Biol. Psychiatry 69, 260–265 (2011).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  32. Duckworth, A. L., Gendler, T. S. & Gross, J. J. Educ. Psychol. 49, 199–217 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Robinson, C. D., Pons, G. A., Duckworth, A. L. & Rogers, T. Front. Psychol. 9, 206 (2018).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  34. Rachlin, H. The Science of Self-Control. (Harvard University Press, 2000).

  35. Stanovich, K. E. Behav. Brain Sci. 28, 661–662 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Foxall, G. R. Front. Psychol. 7, 170 (2016).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  37. Schelling, T.C. Choice and Consequence. (Harvard University Press, 1984).

  38. Ainslie, G. Picoeconomics: The Strategic Interaction of Successive Motivational States within the Person. (Cambridge University Press, 1992).

  39. Atance, C. M. & O’Neill, D. K. Trends Cogn. Sci. 5, 533–539 (2001).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  40. Seligman, M. E. P., Railton, P., Baumeister, R. F. & Sripada, C. Perspect. Psychol. Sci. 8, 119–141 (2013).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  41. Gilbert, D. T. & Wilson, T. D. Science 317, 1351–1354 (2007).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  42. Suddendorf, T. & Corballis, M. C. Behav. Brain Sci. 30, 299–313 (2007).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  43. Suddendorf, T., Bulley, A. & Miloyan, B. Curr. Opin. Behav. Sci. 24, 26–31 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Szpunar, K. K. Perspect. Psychol. Sci. 5, 142–162 (2010).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  45. Schacter, D. L. & Addis, D. R. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 362, 773–786 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Irish, M., Addis, D. R., Hodges, J. R. & Piguet, O. Brain 135, 2178–2191 (2012).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  47. Schacter, D. L., Addis, D. R. & Buckner, R. L. Nat. Rev. Neurosci. 8, 657–661 (2007).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  48. Miloyan, B. & Suddendorf, T. Trends Cogn. Sci. 19, 196–200 (2015).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  49. Benoit, R. G., Paulus, P. C. & Schacter, D. L. Nat. Commun. 10, 2215 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  CAS  Google Scholar 

  50. Ainslie, G. Behav. Brain Sci. 28, 635–650 (2005).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  51. Ernst, A., Philippe, F. L. & D’Argembeau, A. Conscious. Cogn. 66, 26–39 (2018).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  52. Peters, J. & Büchel, C. Trends Cogn. Sci. 15, 227–239 (2011).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  53. Sellitto, M., Ciaramelli, E. & di Pellegrino, G. Rev. Neurosci. 22, 565–574 (2011).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  54. Kwan, D. et al. Hippocampus 22, 1215–1219 (2012).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  55. Palombo, D. J., Keane, M. M. & Verfaellie, M. Neuropsychologia 89, 437–444 (2016).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  56. Palombo, D. J., Keane, M. M. & Verfaellie, M. Hippocampus 25, 345–353 (2014).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  57. Dolan, R. J. & Dayan, P. Neuron 80, 312–325 (2013).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  58. Gershman, S. J. Curr. Opin. Behav. Sci. 17, 7–13 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  59. Pezzulo, G. & Rigoli, F. Front. Neurosci. 5, 79 (2011).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  60. Pylyshyn, Z. W. Behav. Brain Sci. 1, 592–593 (1978).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  61. Perner, J. Understanding the Representational Mind. (MIT Press, 1991).

  62. Suddendorf, T. in The Descent of Mind (ed. Corballis M.C. & Lea, C. S.) 218–260 (Oxford University Press, 1999).

  63. Dunlosky, J. & Metcalfe, J. Metacognition. (Sage Publications, 2008).

  64. Flavell, J. H. & Wellman, H. M. in 83rd Annual Meeting of the American Psychological Association (1975).

  65. Wang, J. X. et al. Nat. Neurosci. 21, 860–868 (2018).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  66. Gershman, S. J., Horvitz, E. J. & Tenenbaum, J. B. Science 349, 273–278 (2015).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  67. Boureau, Y. L., Sokol-Hessner, P. & Daw, N. D. Trends Cogn. Sci. 19, 700–710 (2015).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  68. Botvinick, M. et al. Trends Cogn. Sci. 23, 408–422 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  69. Kool, W. & Botvinick, M. Nat. Hum. Behav. 2, 899–908 (2018).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  70. Suddendorf, T. & Corballis, M. C. Genet. Soc. Gen. Psychol. Monogr. 123, 133–167 (1997).

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  71. Redshaw, J. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Cogn. Sci. 5, 519–531 (2014).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  72. Redshaw, J. & Suddendorf, T. Trends Cogn. Sci. 24, 56–64 (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  73. Bulley, A., Redshaw, J. & Suddendorf, T. in The Cambridge Handbook of the Imagination (ed. Abraham, A.) 1–50 (Cambridge University Press, 2020).

  74. Ernst, A. & D’Argembeau, A. Mem. Cognit. 45, 1045–1061 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  75. Ernst, A., Scoboria, A. & D’Argembeau, A. Q. J. Exp. Psychol. 72, 2658–2671 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  76. Jing, H. G., Madore, K. P. & Schacter, D. L. Cognition 169, 118–128 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  77. Lempert, K. M. & Phelps, E. A. Trends Cogn. Sci. 20, 64–74 (2016).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  78. Loewenstein, G. & Thaler, R. H. J. Econ. Perspect. 3, 181–193 (1989).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  79. Loewenstein, G. & Elster, J. Choice Over Time. (Russell Sage Foundation, 1992).

  80. Mele, A.R. Irrationality: An Essay on Akrasia, Self-Deception, and Self-Control. (Oxford University Press, 1987).

  81. Read, D., Loewenstein, G. & Kalyanaraman, S. J. Behav. Decis. Making 12, 257–273 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  82. Berns, G. S., Laibson, D. & Loewenstein, G. Trends Cogn. Sci. 11, 482–488 (2007).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  83. Mazur, J. E. in Quantitative Analysis of Behavior: The Effect of Delay and of Intervening Events on Reinforcement Value, Volume 5 (eds Commons, M. N., Mazur, J. E., Nevin, J. A. & Rachlin, H.) 55–73 (Psychology Press, 1987).

  84. Stevens, J. R. J. Behav. Decis. Making 29, 12–24 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  85. Amasino, D. R., Sullivan, N. J., Kranton, R. E. & Huettel, S. A. Nat. Hum. Behav. 3, 383–392 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  86. Laibson, D. Q. J. Econ. 112, 443–478 (1997).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  87. Rubinstein, A. Int. Econ. Rev. 44, 1207–1216 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  88. Bischof-Köhler, D. in Emotion und Reflexivität (eds Eckensberger, L. H. & Lantermann, E. D.) 3–47 (Urban & Schwarzenberg, 1985).

  89. Bischof, N. Das Rätsel Ödipus. (Piper, 1985).

  90. Suddendorf, T. & Busby, J. Learn. Motiv. 36, 110–125 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  91. O’Donoghue, T., & Rabin, M. in Time and decision: Economic and Psychological Perspectives on Intertemporal Choice (eds Loewenstein, G., Read, D. & Baumeister, R.) 217–243 (Russell Sage Foundation, 2003).

  92. Redshaw, J., Bulley, A. & Suddendorf, T. Behav. Brain Sci. 42, e273 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  93. Frankfurt, H.G. in What Is a Person? 127–144 (Springer, 1988).

  94. Elster, J. Ulysses Unbound: Studies in Rationality, Precommitment, and Constraints. (Cambridge University Press, 2000).

  95. Kurth-Nelson, Z. & Redish, A. D. Front. Neurosci. 6, 138 (2012).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  96. Kurth-Nelson, Z. & Redish, A. D. Front. Behav. Neurosci. 4, 184 (2010).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  97. Risko, E. F. & Gilbert, S. J. Trends Cogn. Sci. 20, 676–688 (2016).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  98. Risko, E. F. & Dunn, T. L. Conscious. Cogn. 36, 61–74 (2015).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  99. Gilbert, S., Carpenter, J., Fleming, S., Tsai, P.-C. & Bird, A. J. Exp. Psychol. 149, 501–517 (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  100. Redshaw, J., Vandersee, J., Bulley, A. & Gilbert, S. J. Child Dev. 89, 2099–2108 (2018).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  101. Paglieri, F. in Consciousness in Interaction: the Role of the Natural and Social Context in Shaping Consciousness (ed. Paglieri, F.) 179–206 (John Benjamins Publishing, 2012).

  102. Hu, X., Luo, L. & Fleming, S. M. Cognition 193, 104012 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  103. Laibson, B. D. Am. Econ. Rev. 105, 267–272 (2015).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  104. Loewenstein, G. F. Econ. J. (Lond.) 97, 666–684 (1987).

    Google Scholar 

  105. Bulley, A., Henry, J. D. & Suddendorf, T. Conscious. Cogn. 49, 53–69 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  106. Jing, H. G., Madore, K. P. & Schacter, D. L. J. Exp. Psychol. Gen. 145, 402–418 (2016).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  107. Miloyan, B., Pachana, N. & Suddendorf, T. Cogn. Emotion 28, 795–810 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  108. Damasio, A.R. Looking for Spinoza: Joy, Sorrow, and the Feeling Brain. (Random House, 2004).

  109. Miloyan, B., Bulley, A. & Suddendorf, T. Emot. Rev. 11, 39–49 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  110. Jimura, K., Chushak, M. S. & Braver, T. S. J. Neurosci. 33, 344–357 (2013).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  111. Morewedge, Carey K. in Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, II (eds Keren, G. & Wu, G.) 295–330 (2016).

  112. Hardisty, D. J. Kisses vs. shocks: contemplation asymmetries (partly) explain why negative events are discounted less than positive events. SSRN https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1961370 (2019).

  113. Thaler, R. Econ. Lett. 8, 201–207 (1981).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  114. Story, G. W. et al. PLOS Comput. Biol. 9, e1003335 (2013).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  CAS  Google Scholar 

  115. Berns, G. S. et al. Science 312, 754–758 (2006).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  116. Molouki, S., Hardisty, D. J. & Caruso, E. M. Psychol. Sci. 30, 1674–1695 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  117. Corballis, M.C. The Recursive Mind: The Origins of Human Language, Thought, and Civilization. (Princeton University Press, 2011).

  118. Schacter, D. L., Benoit, R. G., De Brigard, F. & Szpunar, K. K. Neurobiol. Learn. Mem. 117, 14–21 (2015).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  119. De Brigard, F. & Parikh, N. Curr. Dir. Psychol. Sci. 28, 59–66 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  120. Hoerl, C. & McCormack, T. in Seeing the Future: Theoretical Perspectives on Future-Oriented Mental Time Travel (eds. Michaelian, K., Klein, S. B. & Szpunar, K. K.) 241–266 (Oxford University Press, 2016).

  121. Coricelli, G. et al. Nat. Neurosci. 8, 1255–1262 (2005).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  122. Palombo, D. J., Keane, M. M. & Verfaellie, M. Hippocampus 25, 407–408 (2015).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  123. Schacter, D. L., Benoit, R. G. & Szpunar, K. K. Curr. Opin. Behav. Sci. 17, 41–50 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  124. Rung, J. M. & Madden, G. J. J. Exp. Psychol. Gen. 147, 1349–1381 (2018).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  125. Boyer, P. Trends Cogn. Sci. 12, 219–224 (2008).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  126. Bulley, A. et al. Q. J. Exp. Psychol. 72, 1998–2017 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  127. Lempert, K. M., Speer, M. E., Delgado, M. R. & Phelps, E. A. Soc. Cogn. Affect. Neurosci. 12, 1584–1593 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  128. Ciaramelli, E., Sellitto, M., Tosarelli, G. & Pellegrino, G. Front. Behav. Neurosci. 13, 269 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  129. O’Donnell, S., Oluyomi Daniel, T. & Epstein, L. H. Conscious. Cogn. 51, 10–16 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  130. Liu, L., Feng, T., Chen, J. & Li, H. PLoS One 8, e81717 (2013).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  CAS  Google Scholar 

  131. Zhang, S., Peng, J., Qin, L., Suo, T. & Feng, T. Br. J. Psychol. 109, 487–499 (2018).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  132. Calluso, C., Tosoni, A., Cannito, L. & Committeri, G. PLoS One 14, e0217224 (2019).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  133. Frankenhuis, W. E., Panchanathan, K. & Nettle, D. Curr. Opin. Psychol. 7, 76–80 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  134. Bulley, A., Pepper, G. & Suddendorf, T. Behav. Brain Sci. 40, e79 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  135. Paglieri, F. Behav. Processes 127, 97–108 (2016).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  136. Kivetz, R. & Keinan, A. J. Consum. Res. 33, 273–282 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  137. Kivetz, R. & Simonson, I. J. Consum. Res. 29, 199–217 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  138. Michaelson, L., de la Vega, A., Chatham, C. & Munakata, Y. Front. Psychol. 4, 355 (2013).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  139. Jachimowicz, J. M., Chafik, S., Munrat, S., Prabhu, J. C. & Weber, E. U. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 114, 5401–5406 (2017).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  140. Bulley, A. & Pepper, G. V. Evol. Hum. Behav. 38, 652–658 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  141. Lee, A. J., DeBruine, L. & Jones, B. C. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.0304 (2018).

  142. Falk, A. et al. IZA Discussion Paper No. 9504 https://ssrn.com/abstract=2696302 (2015).

  143. Mischel, W., Shoda, Y. & Rodriguez, M. I. Science 244, 933–938 (1989).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  144. Kidd, C., Palmeri, H. & Aslin, R. N. Cognition 126, 109–114 (2013).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  145. Dai, J., Pachur, T., Pleskac, T. J. & Hertwig, R. Psychol. Sci. 30, 1218–1233 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  146. Dai, J., Pachur, T., Pleskac, T.J. & Hertwig, R. in Taming Uncertainty (eds. Hertwig, R., Pleskac, T. J. & Pachur, T.) 175–189 (The MIT Press, 2019).

  147. McGuire, J. T. & Kable, J. W. Psychol. Rev. 120, 395–410 (2013).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  148. Amlung, M. et al. JAMA Psychiatry 76, 1176–1186 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  149. King, J. A. et al. J. Psychiatry Neurosci. 44, 180252 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  150. Decker, J. H., Figner, B. & Steinglass, J. E. Biol. Psychiatry 78, 606–614 (2015).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  151. Foerde, A. K., Daw, N. D., Rufin, T. & Walsh, B. T. Preprint at medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/19002089 (2019).

  152. Solway, A., Lohrenz, T. & Montague, P. R. Sci. Rep. 7, 43119 (2017).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  153. Parthasarathi, T., McConnell, M. H., Luery, J. & Kable, J. W. Front. Psychol. 8, 289 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  154. Wiehler, A., Bromberg, U. & Peters, J. Front. Psychiatry 6, 112 (2015).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  155. Hunter, L. E., Bornstein, A. M. & Hartley, C. A. Preprint at bioRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/499707 (2018).

  156. Radu, P. T., Yi, R., Bickel, W. K., Gross, J. J. & McClure, S. M. J. Exp. Anal. Behav. 96, 363–385 (2011).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  157. Rung, J. M., Peck, S., Hinnenkamp, J. E., Preston, E. & Madden, G. J. Perspect. Behav. Sci. 42, 397–417 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  158. Read, D., Olivola, C. Y. & Hardisty, D. J. Manage. Sci. 63, 4277–4297 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  159. Jenkins, A. C. & Hsu, M. Psychol. Sci. 28, 894–906 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  160. Ballard, I. C. et al. Psychol. Sci. 28, 1443–1454 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  161. Gershman, S.J. & Bhui, R. Preprint at bioRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/680652 (2019).

  162. Gabaix, X. & Laibson, D. Myopia and discounting. NBER Working Paper 23254 (2017).

  163. Buckner, R. L. & DiNicola, L. M. Nat. Rev. Neurosci. 20, 593–608 (2019).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  164. Benoit, R. G. & Schacter, D. L. Neuropsychologia 75, 450–457 (2015).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  165. Soutschek, A. et al. Soc. Cogn. Affect. Neurosci. 12, 635–642 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  166. Crockett, M. J. et al. Neuron 79, 391–401 (2013).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  167. Addis, D. R., Wong, A. T. & Schacter, D. L. Neuropsychologia 45, 1363–1377 (2007).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  168. De Martino, B., Fleming, S. M., Garrett, N. & Dolan, R. J. Nat. Neurosci. 16, 105–110 (2013).

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  169. Burgess, P. W., Dumontheil, I. & Gilbert, S. J. Trends Cogn. Sci. 11, 290–298 (2007).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  170. Boorman, E. D., Behrens, T. E. J., Woolrich, M. W. & Rushworth, M. F. S. Neuron 62, 733–743 (2009).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  171. Koechlin, E. & Hyafil, A. Science 318, 594–598 (2007).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  172. D’Argembeau, A. Front. Hum. Neurosci. 7, 372 (2013).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  173. Iigaya, K. et al. Preprint at bioRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/588699 (2019).

  174. Cooper, N., Kable, J. W., Kim, B. K. & Zauberman, G. J. Neurosci. 33, 13150–13156 (2013).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  175. Hakimi, S. & Hare, T. A. J. Neurosci. 35, 13103–13109 (2015).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  176. Benoit, R. G., Gilbert, S. J. & Burgess, P. W. J. Neurosci. 31, 6771–6779 (2011).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  177. Peters, J. & Büchel, C. Neuron 66, 138–148 (2010).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  178. Sasse, L. K., Peters, J. & Brassen, S. Front. Aging Neurosci. 9, 58 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  179. Hu, X. et al. Front. Hum. Neurosci. 10, 663 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  180. Shadlen, M. N. N. & Shohamy, D. Neuron 90, 927–939 (2016).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  181. Rodriguez, C. A., Turner, B. M. & McClure, S. M. PLoS One 9, e90138 (2014).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  CAS  Google Scholar 

  182. Peters, J. & D’Esposito, M. Preprint available at bioRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/642587 (2019).

  183. Zhao, W. J., Diederich, A., Trueblood, J. S. & Bhatia, S. Psychon. Bull. Rev. 26, 661–668 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  184. Noël, X., Jaafari, N. & Bechara, A. Progr. Brain Res. 235, 219–237 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  185. Redish, A. D., Jensen, S. & Johnson, A. Behav. Brain Sci. 31, 415–437 (2008).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  186. Bulley, A. & Irish, M. Front. Psychol. 9, 2328 (2018).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  187. Duckworth, A. L., Milkman, K. L. & Laibson, D. Psychol. Sci. Public Interest 19, 102–129 (2018).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  188. Bertoux, M., de Souza, L. C., Zamith, P., Dubois, B. & Bourgeois-Gironde, S. Neuropsychology 29, 933–939 (2015).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  189. Irish, M., Hodges, J. R. & Piguet, O. Cortex 49, 2377–2388 (2013).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  190. Svoboda, E. & Richards, B. J. Int. Neuropsychol. Soc. 15, 629–638 (2009).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  191. McDonald, A. et al. Neuropsychol. Rehabil. 21, 784–807 (2011).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  192. Clark, A. & Chalmers, D. Analysis 58, 7–19 (1998).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  193. O’Neill, J., Daniel, T. O. & Epstein, L. H. Eat. Behav. 20, 9–13 (2015).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  194. Stein, J. S. et al. Psychopharmacology (Berl.) 233, 3771–3778 (2016).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  195. Bulley, A. & Gullo, M. J. Addict. Behav. 66, 1–6 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  196. Gollwitzer, P. M. Motiv. Emot. 38, 305–322 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  197. Carpenter, J. et al. J. Exp. Psychol. Gen. 148, 51–64 (2019).

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank R. Bhui, N. Brashier, T. Cochard, C. Conwell, D. Bulley, B. Leahy, J. Mahr, H. Pailian, D. Palombo, J. Redshaw, T. Suddendorf and M. Wilks for helpful discussions and comments on a previous draft of this article. A.B. is supported by an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council CJ Martin Biomedical Fellowship APP1162811. D.L.S. is supported by National Institute of Mental Health grant R01 MH060941 and National Institute on Aging grant R01 AG008441. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA

    Adam Bulley & Daniel L. Schacter

  2. The University of Sydney, School of Psychology and Brain and Mind Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia

    Adam Bulley

Authors
  1. Adam Bulley
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Daniel L. Schacter
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

A.B. and D.L.S. contributed to writing the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Adam Bulley.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Editor recognition statement: Primary Handling Editor: Stavroula Kousta.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Bulley, A., Schacter, D.L. Deliberating trade-offs with the future. Nat Hum Behav 4, 238–247 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0834-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0834-9

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing