Fig. 1: Economic impacts (value-added loss) of COVID-19 under different lockdown scenarios.

a–i, Maps of the results from 9 scenarios out of the first three sets of 36 modelled scenarios, with different combinations of spatial spread (China only (a,d,g), Europe and the United States (b,e,h), and global (c,f,i)), lockdown duration and strictness (80%–2 month (a–c), 60%–4 month (d–f) and 60%–6 month (g–i); see Methods; Table 1). Strictness represents the level of reductions in transportation capacity and labour availability relative to pre-pandemic levels. The percentages at the bottom left of each map indicate the global value-added losses for each scenario; shading denotes the regional distributions of these losses. j–l, A summary of all 36 scenarios, showing the sensitivity of global value-added losses to duration (different stacks) and strictness (shading of stacked bars) for the China only (j), Europe and the United States (k), and the global scenarios (l).