Fig. 2: The effect of R0 mitigation on infection spread.
a, When R0 is reduced, the infected group trajectory is flattened and delayed. b, Trends in peak infected fraction Imax (orange), relationship between Imax and the time at which it occurs (black) and cumulative epidemic size R(∞) (blue) as R0 decreases from 3.0 to 1.5. Dashed horizontal line indicates a putative hospital capacity target for mitigation efforts. Infectious period is 1/γ = 14 days for all plots, but β varies from 0.21 to 0.11.
