Table 1 Results of model estimation.

From: An ecological and digital epidemiology analysis on the role of human behavior on the 2014 Chikungunya outbreak in Martinique

Parameters included in transmission rate

Twitter as an anticipated indicator (τ = −1)

Twitter as a real-time indicator (τ = 0)

Twitter as a delayed indicator (τ = 1)

None

9088

9088

9088

Mosquito abundance (MA)

6980

6980

6980

Expressed protection need (EPN)

3897

7546

5191

Epidemics awareness (EA)

7797

8240

6878

MA and EPN

2402

4058

3161

MA and EA

7242

8518

5484

EPN and EA

7218

7529

3685

MA, EPN and EA

4389

7639

2675

  1. We show here the squared root of the Mean-Squared Error instead of AIC in order to show the difference between the observed and predicted number of cases. The best model includes the variation in mosquito abundance and the expressed need for protection represented by the proportion of tweets talking about protection against the mosquito in the set of all tweets and retweets that included the word Chikungunya (only Twitter accounts declared in Martinique have been considered). The lag period (τ) is expressed in month. AIC values are included in Supplementary Materials.
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