Table 2 Aggregating risk to the county scale can absorb some of the inherent spatial uncertainty of ecological niche modeling, but is itself an assumption that changes downstream impacts on the scale of outbreaks, as well as the scale of disagreement between models.
From: Consensus and conflict among ecological forecasts of Zika virus outbreaks in the United States
| Â | Carlson | Partial | Messina | Partial | Samy | Partial |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Counties Predicted | 13 | 13 | 465 | 465 | 1616 | 1616 |
County Population at Risk | 19,653,445 | 6,264,516 | 95,359,408 | 38,085,602 | 270,249,781 | 99,324,226 |
Mean Outbreak Size | 12,871,005 | 4,195,326 | 63,622,367 | 25,897,671 | 181,290,371 | 66,345,567 |
Median Outbreak Size | 14,552,250 | 4,262,636 | 64,038,273 | 26,307,445 | 181,732,629 | 66,850,610 |
