Am. J. Social. http://doi.org/jb5 (2012)

Experts are still discussing whether carbon emissions will continue to increase as a result of sustained socio-economic growth. Empirical research comparing patterns of countries can shed light on the issue and support policy makers.

Andrew K. Jorgenson and Brett Clark of the University of Utah, USA, analysed the temporal stability of the effect of economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions in both developed and developing countries, from 1960 to 2005. With a dataset including 86 countries, they estimated the impacts of per capita gross domestic product (GDP), population, urbanization and international trade on three measures of carbon emissions — total emissions, per capita emissions and emissions per unit of GDP. The results vary across the three outcomes as well as between developed and developing countries. Overall, the relationship between economic growth and emissions seems to decouple slightly in developed nations but not so in less developed countries.

The researchers suggest that both the debate and future studies on economic development and climate change would benefit from considering the effects of changes in the transnational organization of production and the structure of international trade.